Here we go again with the Erik Karlsson trade talks. It feels like every other offseason the Swedish defenseman finds himself in the rumor mill, and this summer will be more of the same.
Karlsson just completed his second full season as a member of the Pittsburgh Penguins, and it’s fair to say it hasn’t gone according to plan. General manager Kyle Dubas swung big to acquire Karlsson from San Jose in the summer of 2023. He did so with the hope that the addition would propel the Pens to make a few final runs at the Stanley Cup with their aging core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang. Unfortunately, that has not come close to happening.
Pittsburgh has missed the playoffs in both seasons with Erik Karlsson in the fold, and his production hasn’t lived up to 2022-23 Norris Trophy levels. Those 56 and 53 points, respectively, have seen his production nearly cut in half, dropping off from the 101-point campaign in his final year with the Sharks. And while it’s not reasonable to count on 100+ points from a defenseman every year, 70 should be the minimum expected from Karlsson.
His inconsistent play combined with the current state of the Penguins has analysts and insiders speculating that the 34-year-old could once again be on the move. While I understand where they’re coming from, as someone who watches this team on a nightly basis, I find it hard to picture a scenario where trading Erik Karlsson makes any sense.
So, here is why I believe the Pittsburgh Penguins should keep Erik Karlsson moving forward.
Weak Defense Corps:
First off, let’s take a look at the Penguins’ blue line. Behind Erik Karlsson, all that’s under contract is a 38-year-old Kris Letang, an overpaid Ryan Graves, and Ryan Shea. Then there are pending RFAs Pierre-Olivier Joseph and Connor Timmins, along with pending UFA Matt Grzelcyk. All in all, it’s not too pretty.
Letang struggled this year but can still be a serviceable second-pairing defenseman; Graves has been a disaster since signing in Pittsburgh, constantly finding himself in and out of the lineup, and Shea is a number seven at best. Joseph is unlikely to be re-signed, while Timmins and Grzelcyk had good moments and should be offered extensions at the right price.
Basically that leaves the Penguins with two serviceable middle-pair defensemen, one serviceable bottom-pairing defenseman, and two extras that can sometimes enter the lineup. Imagine this backend not having Erik Karlsson. It’s already one of the worst defense corps in the NHL; without EK65, it would become the worst, period.
While Karlsson’s 53 points in 2024-25 left you wanting more, only two others produced over 16 points on Pittsburgh’s blue line. Matt Grzelcyk had 40… who we aren’t even sure is coming back, and Kris Letang had 30, his least productive season since 2013-14, when he only played 37 games. It’s hard to fathom what this team would look like without his offense.
Yes, Kyle Dubas has lots of cap space and draft picks to add and improve his defense, but why not do that to build around Erik Karlsson? His $10 million cap hit is no small ticket, but even with him under contract, they possess over $23 million in space. Acquire a legit top-4 left-shot defenseman, re-sign Matt Grzelcyk, and give prospects Owen Pickering and Harrison Brunicke all the opportunity in the world to earn a spot in the NHL. All of a sudden, the blue line could look a lot more respectable in Pittsburgh, but it all starts with keeping EK65.
Potential Under New Coach/System:
It was quite surprising when Kyle Dubas announced the team would be parting ways with Mike Sullivan about a month ago. After 10 years of Sullivan behind the Penguins’ bench, the organization felt it was finally time to make a change. While the decision itself wasn’t too shocking, it was a surprise to see it happen now instead of several years ago when the Pens were still contending and more was on the line.
Sullivan had tremendous success in Pittsburgh, though we saw plenty of struggle in the back half of his tenure. The last two years were particularly bad, during which Erik Karlsson was on board. The Pens were very poor defensively and never got consistent goaltending, a recipe for failure. Karlsson undoubtedly deserves some blame for their defensive woes, but it’s not all on him.
He’s never been known for his defensive prowess in the first place, and as I mentioned in the section above, the rest of the d-corps around him was subpar at best. A lot of the issues stem from the personal, but some of them could also relate back to the coaching and systems implemented by Mike Sullivan. Karlsson never looked like himself under Sully, and it’s fair to wonder how things could look with a new coach.
Sullivan seemed to be always trying to tame Karlsson and make him play a safer and more responsible game, but that’s not who he is. Erik Karlsson is a highly skilled, free-flowing, dynamic offensive threat from the back end. Holding him back is just limiting what he can provide. Perhaps Dubas realized that, and the next bench boss will let EK off the leash to make special plays as he so often can… including on the power play, which they have yet to figure out.
For those who think he doesn’t have it anymore… Watch some of these clips.
It’s no guarantee that a coaching change will unlock Karlsson’s best in Pittsburgh, but it’s worth seeing what that can do before giving up on such a talent.
Lack Of A Return:
My final issue with trading Erik Karlsson would be the lack of a potential return. This isn’t EK65 from 2018 that can fetch Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris, draft picks, and solid roster players like the Ottawa Senators got back in the day. We saw that in the deal two years ago that brought him to Pittsburgh in the first place.
Coming off his third Norris Trophy in 2022-23, the Penguins acquired Karlsson for a relatively underwhelming return. The only real asset San Jose received was Pittsburgh’s 2024 1st round pick, which turned out to be Sam Dickinson with the 11th overall selection, certainly a nice piece for the Sharks. But other than that, it was salary cap dumps in Mikael Granlund and Jan Ruuta, while San Jose also had to send the Penguins a third-round pick in 2026. Not a haul by any means.
Now, two years later, and two years older, can you really expect much better for Erik Karlsson in a trade? I still believe the dynamic offensive defenseman has at least 2-3 more good years of hockey in him, but other teams have all the leverage in these talks. He’s a 35-year-old defenseman making $10 million a year, coming off back-to-back seasons of underperforming.
I don’t think you’re getting a first-round pick or a good prospect here. Not to mention, Pittsburgh has stockpiled loads of draft picks for the next three years and has accumulated a nice quantity of prospects as well. What they need is more quality, and that’s not going to come in an Erik Karlsson trade. The only way trading him would make sense is if this was a full-blown rebuild in Pittsburgh. But with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, and Rickard Rakell, among others, still on the roster, how can that be the case?
Karlsson’s production and upside provide the Penguins much more value to their team rather than whatever lame package they could get shipping him out of town. He’s not a perfect player by any stretch of the imagination, but what Erik Karlsson is capable of far outweighs what would come in a trade return at this stage of his career.
The Sports Outsider 
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