The Sports Outsider

Many thought this year would be different for the Toronto Maple Leafs. A 2-0 series lead over the defending Stanley Cup Champions in Round 2 created a belief that fans had never felt in this era of Leafs hockey. That was until the embarrassing 6-1 losses on home ice in critical Games 5 and 7, which have destroyed the notion that this team really is different.

The Maple Leafs fooled us all by winning Game 6 in shutout fashion and forcing yet another winner-takes-all Game 7 against the Florida Panthers. After reeling the fans back in, they threw up all over themselves on the biggest stage, and it’s more than fair to say that we’ve seen enough from this core group of players to understand it’s time for major changes.

They are now headed toward a potentially franchise-altering offseason. Staples of the “Core 4,” Mitch Marner and John Tavares are pending UFAs, providing the organization an opportunity to go in another direction for the first time in nine years.

With their 2024-25 season officially coming to another disappointing conclusion, I thought I would dive into what I believe the Toronto Maple Leafs should do this summer to ensure these playoff failures stop happening moving forward.

Let’s go through each position group one by one.

FORWARDS:

This will be the longest block of the article. The forward group is where all of the disappointment, frustration, and uncertainty lie. Let me start by saying Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Matthew Knies are untouchable and not going anywhere. Matthews struggled in these playoffs and deserves plenty of blame for the team’s shortcomings, but he’s staying in Toronto.

Now onto the controversial topics. Mitch Marner has to go. No matter how you slice it, there is just no plausible argument in favor of bringing Mitch Marner back on another long-term deal. Number one, it will be way too expensive; number two, he doesn’t handle the market or the pressure particularly well; and number three, he’s the worst playoff performer of the Core 4. There is no doubt that he’s a tremendous player, and it will suck to lose him for nothing as a UFA, but it’s management’s own doing. I’ve said it for years now: Marner should have been traded after the first-round loss to Montreal, and they didn’t do it. Then came another glorious opportunity to trade him after the second-round loss to Florida in 2023… nothing. It’s long overdue that the two sides part ways, and it’s in the best interest of both parties.

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John Tavares is another interesting one, though I don’t believe it should be a difficult decision. Toronto should 100% re-sign Tavares. The Mississauga, Ontario, native has expressed the desire to finish his career as a Maple Leaf, and I’m quite positive he’d take a pay cut to do so. Yes, he’s 34 years old, but he just racked up 74 points (38 goals, 36 assists) in 75 games. You’re not going to find a more productive 2C at a better value than that. I’d give him 3-4 years anywhere in the $6 million range.

Lastly, in terms of the current Maple Leafs under contract, shedding some of the deadweight bottom-six salaries is an absolute must. Any of Max Domi, Calle Jarnkrok, or David Kampf will work, whichever can net the best return or needs no sweetener added on to take their full deal. So now let’s assume Marner walks, Tavares re-signs, and Jarnkrok is moved for a late-round pick.

We now have to factor in their pending RFAs. Toronto will re-sign Matthew Knies to a big-ticket extension and Pontus Holmberg to a cheap extension while also renewing Steven Lorentz’s contract for cheap to remain on the fourth line. Meanwhile, Nick Robertson should be left to head elsewhere. The 23-year-old has been seeking a bigger role and a change of scenery for years now, and he should get his wish this offseason. That leaves about 3-4 roster openings up front with around $15 million to work with.

First off, Easton Cowan needs to be given a chance to play in the NHL. The Maple Leafs’ first-round pick (28th overall) from the 2023 draft has torn up the OHL over the last two years and has the looks of an impact NHL player. Cowan recently turned 20 years old, and it’s time for him to start the season with the big club for at least a handful of games so we can see what he has. The addition of skill and youth could be huge at just an $873,500 cap hit.

With a top-six and middle-six hole still needing to be filled, I would look to free agency and the trade market. This UFA class isn’t the best, but Sam Bennett and Mikael Granlund are intriguing targets up top, while Brandon Tanev and Trent Frederic are good lower-lineup options. RFA’s Jack McBain and Brett Leason could also fit the mold.

Any trade will be tough to pull off for a team without a first-round pick until 2028, but that’s likely where the Maple Leafs will have to look. The lack of draft capital and prospects could mean taking fliers on players whose value is diminished or could be acquired for a reasonable price because a team needs to clear money. Mason Marchment of the Dallas Stars, Ross Colton of the Colorado Avalanche, Anthony Duclair of the New York Islanders, Lawson Crouse of the Utah Mammoth, and Ivan Barbashev or William Karlsson of the Vegas Golden Knights are some middle-six forwards that could be had and are affordable to Toronto.

Here is an example of what two different lineup options could look like that fit under the $95.5 million salary cap limit heading into 2025-26:

OPTION 1:

Left Wing	Center	Right Wing
Matthew Knies (RFA) Projected Contract: 8 Years $8,000,000	Auston Matthews Current Contract: 3 Years $13,250,000	William Nylander Current Contract: 7 Years $11,500,000
Anthony Duclair (Trade) Current Contract: 3 Years $3,500,000	John Tavares (UFA) Projected Contract: 4 Years $6,500,000	Sam Bennett (UFA) Projected Contract: 7 Years $7,500,000
Easton Cowan Current Contract: 3 Years $873,500	Scott Laughton Current Contract: 1 Year $1,500,000	Max Domi Current Contract: 3 Years $3,750,000
Bobby McMann Current Contract: 1 Year $1,350,000	David Kämpf Current Contract: 2 Years $2,400,000	Steven Lorentz (UFA) Projected Contract: 1 Year $1,000,000
Alex Steeves (RFA) Projected Contract: 2 Years $900,000	Pontus Holmberg (RFA) Projected Contract: 1 Year $1,000,000

Sam Bennett would be the ideal free-agent addition for the Maple Leafs. His combination of grit, skill, and toughness is exactly what Toronto needs in its top six. It could be hard to pry him out of Florida, though Brad Treliving does have a relationship with the 28-year-old, having drafted him as a Calgary Flame (4th overall) back in 2014. Anthony Duclair is a trade target who wouldn’t cost too much to acquire and provides speed, which they are lacking. He can play anywhere in the top nine and has chemistry with Sam Bennett dating back to their time with the Florida Panthers, as well as Max Domi going back to their days with the Arizona Coyotes and playing for Team Canada at the World Juniors.

OPTION 2:

Left Wing	Center	Right Wing
Matthew Knies (RFA) Projected Contract: 8 Years $8,000,000	Auston Matthews Current Contract: 3 Years $13,250,000	Mikael Granlund (UFA) Projected Contract: 2 Years $5,250,000
Mason Marchment (Trade) Current Contract: 1 Year $4,500,000	John Tavares (UFA) Projected Contract: 4 Years $6,500,000	William Nylander Current Contract: 7 Years $11,500,000
Easton Cowan Current Contract: 3 Years $873,500	Scott Laughton Current Contract: 1 Year $1,500,000	Max Domi Current Contract: 3 Years $3,750,000
Bobby McMann Current Contract: 1 Year $1,350,000	David Kämpf Current Contract: 2 Years $2,400,000	Brandon Tanev (UFA) Projected Contract: 3 Years $2,500,000
Steven Lorentz (UFA) Projected Contract: 1 Year $1,000,000	Pontus Holmberg (RFA) Projected Contract: 1 Year $1,000,000

For this option, Mikael Granlund is signed to provide some of what will be lost with Mitch Marner walking. He obviously won’t fill the entire void of Marner, but Granlund is a great playmaker who’s shown to play well with elite talent. He’s also proven to step up in big games this year with Dallas in the playoffs and at the 4 Nations Face-Off for Team Finland. A short-term deal at less than half of what Marner will likely make is great value for the Maple Leafs. A potentially even cheaper alternative would be a 1-2 year deal for Patrick Kane, who we know is a a big time playoff performer. With the rest of the cap space, they can potentially send Nick Robertson’s RFA rights and a mid-round draft pick in a trade to acquire Mason Marchment. Marchment will be in the final season of a four-year contract, and Dallas could be forced to move him as they’re in a serious cap crunch. The 29-year-old is another great fit in the top six, being a big, physical winger with skill who is flexible to play up and down the lineup. Option 2 is then capped off by reuniting the Tanev brothers, signing Brandon Tanev to add even more of an energy and physicality boost to the bottom six. This one also leaves enough cap space to sign both Lorentz and Holmberg as extras that could be inserted into the lineup should Easton Cowan need some seasoning down in the AHL.

DEFENSE:

The defense corps isn’t an issue whatsoever and has actually become a strength of the team under Craig Berube. I like the six guys who are currently all locked up with some term remaining on their contracts. The only thing I worry about is a lack of offensive punch from this backend. Simon Benoit, Brandon Carlo, Jake McCabe, and Chris Tanev are defensive defensemen, which leaves it mostly up to Morgan Rielly and a soon-to-be 34-year-old Oliver Ekman-Larsson to produce offense.

Despite those concerns, I would still keep the same six defensemen heading into the 2025-26 season, though it is something I’d file in the back of my mind should an issue arise at any point in the future.

GOALIES:

Another not-so-controversial situation comes in between the pipes for Toronto. Anthony Stolarz was phenomenal in his first year as a Maple Leaf. He and Joseph Woll combine to be one of the best 1A-1B tandems in the NHL, and that will remain the case next season. Not to mention both are locked into very team-friendly salaries for 2025-26.

2026 and Beyond:

As previously mentioned, the 2025 free agent class is not the strongest, so it could be impossible to replace Mitch Marner this summer. We must keep in mind that the salary cap will be going up another $9 million in 2026-27, and the 2026 UFA class is stacked, meaning it could be smart for the Leafs not to blow their load on lesser talents this offseason.

Connor McDavid (pipe dream), Kirill Kaprizov, Adrian Kempe, Martin Necas, and Alex Tuch are just some of the names who could hit the open market a little over a year from now. For that reason, Sam Bennett is just about the only UFA I would be willing to give term to this summer; all other options should be 2-3 years max. It may feel like the Maple Leafs get worse this offseason, but fans must remember that it isn’t just about next year; it’s about the years to follow as the team looks to transition away from the Core 4 era.