If the NHL was hoping the 2026 Draft Lottery would produce the most dramatic outcome possible, it got its wish. The Toronto Maple Leafs jumped from No. 5 to No. 1 and landed the first-overall pick despite having just an 8.5% chance of doing so, along with a 58.2% chance of falling out of the top five and losing the pick altogether.
The most likely landing spot, Vancouver, and smaller-market teams like Calgary, Seattle, and Winnipeg were all possibilities, but instead, the hockey hotbed of Toronto received a massive jolt after a disastrous season that left everything in question heading into the summer.
Non-Maple Leafs fans probably think it was rigged, but that’s a moot point now. Toronto will be picking first overall, and the hockey world has the next two months to debate what new general manager John Chayka and executive advisor Mats Sundin are going to do with the selection.
This isn’t a draft class that features an Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, or Macklin Celebrini at the top, but that doesn’t mean the Maple Leafs won’t still land a franchise-altering talent. There are several directions Toronto could go here, but the easiest—and best—decision is clear: draft Gavin McKenna.
No matter what path Chayka and Sundin take the franchise down—retool or rebuild—McKenna fits the timeline and changes everything for the better.
Retool with Gavin McKenna
Option number one and the more likely scenario is a retool around veteran cornerstones Auston Matthews and William Nylander. Everything with the Maple Leafs has revolved around those two and Mitch Marner for the last decade, and year one without the latter proved they desperately need another star alongside them. John Tavares is no longer that player at 35 years old—though he remains productive—and there is nobody currently knocking on the door to become that next guy. Enter McKenna.
It took a painful 32-36-14 season and some lottery luck, but there is no better way for Toronto to acquire another star than by drafting and developing one of its own. No assets sacrificed to get him, a minimal cap hit to begin his career, and the injection of youth, skill, and energy this team has been seriously lacking.
Many will question whether McKenna is ready to step right into the NHL and make an immediate impact, but it’s difficult to see why he wouldn’t in this situation. The game is all about speed and skill now, and as a result, young players are becoming impactful contributors as soon as they enter the league more than ever before. And this isn’t just any young talent, this kid is special and thinks the game like very few can.
Would he have struggled early on with a rebuilding team with little help around him like Vancouver? Maybe. Instead, he gets the option to ride shotgun on a line with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies. It would be the perfect place for him to thrive right off the hop.
The Maple Leafs get an uber-skilled winger to slot into their top six and power play for less than $1 million. That can not only help convince Matthews and Nylander to stick around, but also allow them the ability to spend assets and money improving the rest of the roster (defense corps, forward depth). What better way to begin a quick retool?
Rebuild Around Gavin McKenna
And then there’s the other option: blow it up and rebuild. This would come as a result of Matthews asking for a trade, in turn shipping him and more of the veteran core out for an abundance of assets (young players, draft picks, and prospects) that fit a similar timeline to McKenna.
We know the cupboards are bare right now. Easton Cowan and Ben Danford are nice prospects, but more so secondary-type pieces on a good team. Matthew Knies is a tremendous young talent as well, but the Maple Leafs need more quality and quantity here.
McKenna gives them that quality as a blue-chip, potentially franchise-altering prospect should he reach his ceiling. They would, of course, need to add much more around him, though blowing up the roster by moving the likes of Matthews, Nylander, etc., would expedite that process.
Send Matthews to San Jose or Utah, two teams with some of the best combinations of draft capital and prospects in the league. Then shop Nylander to the highest bidder after that, and you could land another four or five pieces that can be part of the future alongside McKenna, Cowan, Knies, and Danford.
This feels like the less likely scenario, but with Matthews uncommitted to the team for 2026–27 — at least before they won the lottery — it clearly remains a possibility. And while it would be a gut punch to see the captain force his way out of town, drafting McKenna in late June should ease the blow for everyone.
Final Note
There’s always so much talk about how “hard” it is to play in Toronto, so you need to factor in whether a player can handle the pressure, spotlight, and occasional scrutiny. McKenna seems like he’d be just fine, however, unbothered by it all, having dealt with tons of media attention already at a young age. He also has the flair and edge that comes out once in a while that Maple Leafs fans would surely grow to love.
As unfair as every other fanbase may find it, this is exactly what the franchise needed; they just can’t overthink the pick.
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